Systems and methods for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest

ABSTRACT

Systems and methods for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest are disclosed. Exemplary implementations may: obtain subsurface data and well data corresponding to a subsurface volume of interest; obtain a parameter model; use the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps; apply the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values; generate multiple refined production parameter graphs; display the multiple refined production parameter graphs; generate one or more user input options; receive a defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to generate limited production parameter values; generate a representation of estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects; and display the representation.

FIELD OF THE DISCLOSURE

The present disclosure relates to systems and methods for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest.

SUMMARY

An aspect of the present disclosure relates to a method for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest. The method may include obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to a subsurface volume of interest. The subsurface data and the well data may include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity. The method may include obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, a parameter model. The parameter model may be trained using training data on an initial parameter model. The training data may include well data and the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest. The method may include using, with the one or more physical computer processors, the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps. A given production parameter map may represent the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest. The method may include applying, with the one or more physical computer processors, the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values. The method may include generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of estimated reservoir productivity. The method may include displaying, via the graphical user interface, the multiple refined production parameter graphs. The method may include generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, one or more user input options to define a well design and limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameters. The method may include receiving, via the graphical user interface, a defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values. The method may include generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values, based on the one or more user input options selected. The method may include displaying, via the graphical user interface, the representation.

An aspect of the present disclosure relates to a system configured for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest. The system may include one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions. The processor(s) may be configured to obtain, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to a subsurface volume of interest. The subsurface data and the well data may include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity. The processor(s) may be configured to obtain, from the non-transient electronic storage, a parameter model. The parameter model may be trained using training data on an initial parameter model. The training data may include well data and the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest. The processor(s) may be configured to use, with the one or more physical computer processors, the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps. A given production parameter map may represent the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest. The processor(s) may be configured to apply, with the one or more physical computer processors, the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values. The processor(s) may be configured to generate, with the one or more physical computer processors, multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of estimated reservoir productivity. The processor(s) may be configured to display, via the graphical user interface, the multiple refined production parameter graphs. The processor(s) may be configured to generate, with the one or more physical computer processors, one or more user input options to define a well design and limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameters. The processor(s) may be configured to receive, via the graphical user interface, a defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values. The processor(s) may be configured to generate, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values, based on the one or more user input options selected. The processor(s) may be configured to display, via the graphical user interface, the representation.

These and other features, and characteristics of the present technology, as well as the methods of operation and functions of the related elements of structure and the combination of parts and economies of manufacture, will become more apparent upon consideration of the following description and the appended Claims with reference to the accompanying drawings, all of which form a part of this specification, wherein like reference numerals designate corresponding parts in the various figures. It is to be expressly understood, however, that the drawings are for the purpose of illustration and description only and are not intended as a definition of the limits of the presently disclosed technology. As used in the specification and in the Claims, the singular form of “a”, “an”, and “the” include plural referents unless the context clearly dictates otherwise.

The technology disclosed herein, in accordance with one or more various implementations, is described in detail with reference to the following figures. The drawings are provided for purposes of illustration only and merely depict typical or example implementations of the disclosed technology. These drawings are provided to facilitate the reader's understanding of the disclosed technology and shall not be considered limiting of the breadth, scope, or applicability thereof. It should be noted that for clarity and ease of illustration these drawings are not necessarily made to scale.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1A shows a system configured for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 1B illustrates a flowchart of a method of hydrocarbon reservoir recoverable pay characterization, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 2A illustrates example training for a parameter model, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 2B illustrates example training for a parameter model, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 2C illustrates example training for a parameter model, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 3 illustrates example Boruta plots identifying an effect production parameters may have on estimated reservoir productivity, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 4 illustrates example Boruta plots identifying an effect production parameters may have on estimated reservoir productivity by month, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 5 illustrates example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 6A shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6B shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6C shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6D shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6E shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6F shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6G shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6H shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6I shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6J shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6K shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 6L shows example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 7A illustrates example type curve generation and decline analyses used to estimate reservoir productivity compared to actual productivity, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 7B illustrates example type curve generation and decline analyses used to estimate reservoir productivity compared to actual productivity, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 7C illustrates example type curve generation and decline analyses used to estimate reservoir productivity compared to actual productivity, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 7D illustrates example type curve generation and decline analyses used to estimate reservoir productivity compared to actual productivity, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 7E illustrates example type curve generation and decline analyses used to estimate reservoir productivity compared to actual productivity, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 8 is an example output of the disclosed technology, in accordance with one or more implementations, in accordance with some implementations.

FIG. 9 includes a flow chart of a method for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 10 illustrates a workflow for estimating productivity of a well location as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 11A illustrates example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 11B illustrates example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 11C illustrates example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 11D illustrates example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Well planning in hydrocarbon reservoirs may require characterization of the reservoir, including an understanding of the rock properties. Previous approaches for pay characterization often focus on hydrocarbon storage capability or may rely on inferential relationships to well productivity. More recent approaches may utilize simple linear and non-linear multivariate regression techniques to characterize the relationship between rock properties, completion strategies, and well production performance, but these methods may be prone to overfitting, have difficulty capturing complex interaction structures in noisy reservoir data, and generally fall short of characterizing the rock properties that may correspond to enhanced production performance.

There exists a need for improved characterization of subsurface reservoirs, allowing production predictions across the field as well as type curve generation.

Disclosed below are methods, systems, and computer readable storage media that provide an estimation of reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest.

Reference will now be made in detail to various implementations, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. In the following detailed description, numerous details may be set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present disclosure and the implementations described herein. However, implementations described herein may be practiced without such details. In other instances, some methods, procedures, components, and mechanical apparatuses may not be described in detail, so as not to unnecessarily obscure aspects of the implementations.

The presently disclosed technology includes implementations of a method and system for estimated reservoir productivity in a subsurface volume of interest, allowing better hydrocarbon exploration, prospect identification, development and economic planning, such as, for example, for unconventional and tight rock plays. A subsurface volume of interest may include any area, region, and/or volume underneath a surface. Such a volume may include, or be bounded by, one or more of a water surface, a ground surface, and/or other surfaces. The method may link key reservoir, completion, and development strategy (e.g. well spacing) characteristics with long-term well production using a predictive data analytic approach. The method may be designed to quantify the expected recovery across subsurface volume of interest given historical correspondences between production and reservoir and completion practices. The method may provide all the requisite output to construct predicted, synthetic type curves and perform decline analysis to determine an estimated reservoir productivity for any position in the subsurface volume of interest.

FIG. 1A illustrates a system 100 configured for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, in accordance with one or more implementations. In some implementations, system 100 may include one or more servers 102. Server(s) 102 may be configured to communicate with one or more client computing platforms 104 according to a client/server architecture and/or other architectures. Client computing platform(s) 104 may be configured to communicate with other client computing platforms via server(s) 102 and/or according to a peer-to-peer architecture and/or other architectures. Users may access system 100 via client computing platform(s) 104.

Server(s) 102 may be configured by machine-readable instructions 106. Machine-readable instructions 106 may include one or more instruction components. The instruction components may include computer program components. The instruction components may include one or more of a subsurface data and well data component 108, a parameter model component 110, a production parameter graph component 112, a user input component 114, a representation component 116, and/or other instruction components.

Subsurface data and well data component 108 may be configured to obtain, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to a subsurface volume of interest. The subsurface data and/or the well data may be obtained from the non-transient electronic storage and/or other sources. The subsurface data and the well data may include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity.

The subsurface data and the well data may be filtered by one or more pay zones. The subsurface data may include geological data and reservoir data. Geological data may include petrophysical, core, cutting, pressure, drilling property, mudlog, seismic properties, and/or other geological data. In implementations, for unconventional reservoirs, this may include an anticipated stimulated rock volume, a natural geologic target zone, or even a gross formation interval. In some implementations, reservoir data may be interpolated using cokriging, autocorrelation gridding techniques, and/or other techniques. Well data may include completion data and production data. Completion data may include well perforation lengths, proppant intensity, fluid types, well spacing, number of frac stages, and/or other completion data. Production data may include cumulative oil, gas, and/or water production at different time intervals, such as, for example, 6 month or 18 month cumulative standard barrels of oil equivalent produced.

By way of non-limiting example, the subsurface production features may include one or more petrophysical, core, cutting, pressure, drilling property, mudlog, seismic features, well perforation lengths, proppant intensity, fluid types, well spacing, number of fracturing stages, cumulative oil production over a time interval, cumulative gas production over a time interval, cumulative water production over a time interval, and/or other features.

Subsurface data and well data component 108 may be configured to use the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps. This may be accomplished by one or more physical computer processors. A given production parameter map may represent the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest.

In implementations, production parameter values may be filtered based on statistical significance and/or collinearity using, for example, a Pearson correlation matrix.

Parameter model component 110 may be configured to obtain a parameter model. The parameter model may be obtained from the non-transient electronic storage and/or other sources. The parameter model may be trained using training data on an initial parameter model. The training data may include well data and the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest. The parameter model may include random forest machine learning and/or other machine learning.

For example, FIGS. 2A, 2B, and 2C illustrate example training for a parameter model, in accordance with some implementations. Referring to FIG. 2A, the parameter model may include random forest machine learning. Random forest machine learning may have a low risk of overfitting, may allow extreme randomization, and may be very iterative. Random forest may be a modification of bootstrap aggregation that builds on a large collection of de-correlated regression trees and then averages them. Bootstrap aggregation may average many noisy but unbiased models to reduce prediction variance. Regression trees may be appropriate for bootstrap aggregation, because they can capture complex interaction structure. Referring to FIG. 2B, the random forest machine learning uses many boot strap sets and many regression trees to generate many predictions, ultimately averaged together to provide the final prediction algorithm. This identifies the most impactful and statistically significant predictor production parameters that account for differences in well production. Referring to FIG. 2C, applying the parameter model to the multiple refined production parameter maps may allow for validation of the analytic model via blind testing.

Referring to FIG. 1A, parameter model component 110 may be configured to apply the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate multiple refined production parameters including refined production parameter values. This may be accomplished by the one or more physical computer processors. The refined production parameters may be a subset of the multiple production parameters. The parameter model may have been trained, as described herein, to identify one or more of the multiple production parameters that have the greatest effect on productivity compared to the other multiple production parameters.

In implementations, a Boruta plot may be generated from the random forest model using the refined production parameters and corresponding refined production parameter values.

Production parameter graph component 112 may be configured to generate multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of estimated reservoir productivity. This may be accomplished by the one or more physical computer processors.

Production parameter graph component 112 may be configured to display the multiple refined production parameter graphs. The multiple refined production parameter graphs may be displayed on a graphical user interface and/or other displays.

In implementations, production parameter graph component 112 may be configured to determine or identify trends, thresholds, and/or other conditions to limit the refined production parameter values using linear analysis, non-linear analysis, rate of change analysis, machine learning, and/or other techniques.

User input component 114 may be configured to generate one or more user input options to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameters. This may be accomplished by the one or more physical computer processors. By way of non-limiting example, user input options may include a window input for text, numbers, and/or symbols; options to select greater than, greater than or equal to, less than, and/or less than or equal to; note a trend of increasing values, a trend of decreasing values; note a linear trend, a non-linear trend, and/or other trends, options to select one or more threshold values; and/or other trends. In implementations, user input options may include defining a well design or completion design. A well design may include design parameters used to extract hydrocarbons from a reservoir. The design parameters may include, for example, proppant intensity, fluid intensity, lateral spacing, and/or other design parameters.

User input component 114 may be configured to present the one or more user input options corresponding to the multiple refined production parameters. The one or more user input options may be displayed on a graphical user interface and/or other displays.

User input component 114 may be configured to receive a defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values. This may be accomplished by the one or more physical computer processors. The defined well design may describe the design parameters for extracting hydrocarbons, as described above. The limited production parameter values may be a subset of the refined production parameter values. As described herein, the limited production parameter values may be limited based on the thresholds and/or trends of the multiple refined production parameter graphs identified by the system or by a user through the user input options.

Representation component 116 may be configured to generate a representation of estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values, based on the one or more user input options selected. This may be accomplished by the one or more physical computer processors. The representation may estimate a productivity of one or more pay zones of a reservoir in the subsurface volume of interest. The representation may change as a function of time.

In some implementations, a visual effect may include one or more visual transformation of the representation. A visual transformation may include one or more visual changes in how the representation is presented or displayed. In some implementations, a visual transformation may include one or more of a visual zoom, a visual filter, a visual rotation, and/or a visual overlay (e.g., text and/or graphics overlay).

Representation component 116 may be configured to display the representation. The representation may be displayed on a graphical user interface and/or other displays.

In some implementations, server(s) 102, client computing platform(s) 104, and/or external resources 130 may be operatively linked via one or more electronic communication links. For example, such electronic communication links may be established, at least in part, via a network such as the Internet and/or other networks. It will be appreciated that this is not intended to be limiting, and that the scope of this disclosure includes implementations in which server(s) 102, client computing platform(s) 104, and/or external resources 130 may be operatively linked via some other communication media.

A given client computing platform 104 may include one or more processors configured to execute computer program components. The computer program components may be configured to enable an expert or user associated with the given client computing platform 104 to interface with system 100 and/or external resources 130, and/or provide other functionality attributed herein to client computing platform(s) 104. By way of non-limiting example, the given client computing platform 104 may include one or more of a desktop computer, a laptop computer, a handheld computer, a tablet computing platform, a NetBook, a Smartphone, a gaming console, and/or other computing platforms.

External resources 130 may include sources of information outside of system 100, external entities participating with system 100, and/or other resources. In some implementations, some or all of the functionality attributed herein to external resources 130 may be provided by resources included in system 100.

Server(s) 102 may include electronic storage 132, one or more processors 134, and/or other components. Server(s) 102 may include communication lines, or ports to enable the exchange of information with a network and/or other computing platforms. Illustration of server(s) 102 in FIG. 1A is not intended to be limiting. Server(s) 102 may include a plurality of hardware, software, and/or firmware components operating together to provide the functionality attributed herein to server(s) 102. For example, server(s) 102 may be implemented by a cloud of computing platforms operating together as server(s) 102.

Electronic storage 132 may comprise non-transitory storage media that electronically stores information. The electronic storage media of electronic storage 132 may include one or both of system storage that is provided integrally (i.e., substantially non-removable) with server(s) 102 and/or removable storage that is removably connectable to server(s) 102 via, for example, a port (e.g., a USB port, a firewire port, etc.) or a drive (e.g., a disk drive, etc.). Electronic storage 132 may include one or more of optically readable storage media (e.g., optical disks, etc.), magnetically readable storage media (e.g., magnetic tape, magnetic hard drive, floppy drive, etc.), electrical charge-based storage media (e.g., EEPROM, RAM, etc.), solid-state storage media (e.g., flash drive, etc.), and/or other electronically readable storage media. Electronic storage 132 may include one or more virtual storage resources (e.g., cloud storage, a virtual private network, and/or other virtual storage resources). Electronic storage 132 may store software algorithms, information determined by processor(s) 134, information received from server(s) 102, information received from client computing platform(s) 104, and/or other information that enables server(s) 102 to function as described herein.

Processor(s) 134 may be configured to provide information processing capabilities in server(s) 102. As such, processor(s) 134 may include one or more of a digital processor, an analog processor, a digital circuit designed to process information, an analog circuit designed to process information, a state machine, and/or other mechanisms for electronically processing information. Although processor(s) 134 is shown in FIG. 1A as a single entity, this is for illustrative purposes only. In some implementations, processor(s) 134 may include a plurality of processing units. These processing units may be physically located within the same device, or processor(s) 134 may represent processing functionality of a plurality of devices operating in coordination. Processor(s) 134 may be configured to execute components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116, and/or other components. Processor(s) 134 may be configured to execute components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116, and/or other components by software; hardware; firmware; some combination of software, hardware, and/or firmware; and/or other mechanisms for configuring processing capabilities on processor(s) 134. As used herein, the term “component” may refer to any component or set of components that perform the functionality attributed to the component. This may include one or more physical processors during execution of processor readable instructions, the processor readable instructions, circuitry, hardware, storage media, or any other components.

It should be appreciated that although components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116 are illustrated in FIG. 1A as being implemented within a single processing unit, in implementations in which processor(s) 134 includes multiple processing units, one or more of components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116 may be implemented remotely from the other components. The description of the functionality provided by the different components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116 described below is for illustrative purposes, and is not intended to be limiting, as any of components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116 may provide more or less functionality than is described. For example, one or more of components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116 may be eliminated, and some or all of its functionality may be provided by other ones of components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116. As an example, processor(s) 134 may be configured to execute one or more additional components that may perform some or all of the functionality attributed below to one of components 108, 110, 112, 114, and/or 116.

FIG. 1B illustrates a flowchart 150 of a method for pay characterization of a subterranean hydrocarbon reservoir. The left column shows input data 152, which may include subsurface data and well data, as described above. Input data 152 may have corresponding production parameters characterizing subsurface production features, such as, for example, well attributes, as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest. The subsurface data and the well data may be used to generate multiple production parameter maps (e.g., reservoir property maps). Geological data may be gridded. Gridding methods 154, such as, for example, cokriging may provide measurable uncertainty due to interpolation in the form of standard error maps. The standard error maps may be useful for considering the inclusion of a production parameter into the parameter model (e.g., random forest algorithm) of the workflow. Multiple production parameters maps or reservoir property maps 156 may include, at a minimum, average porosity, pore saturation, mineralogy, lithofacies, geomechanical properties, organic richness, and/or any other reservoir property.

Production parameter maps 156 may be subjected to a parameter model, such as, for example, a 2D statistical analysis 158. In particular, a random forest algorithm may be used, as described herein. Using the parameter model with the multiple production parameter maps may allow for validation of the parameter model via blind testing. Applying the parameter model to the production parameter values may generate representations 160. Individual pseudo wells, or an estimated reservoir productivity, may be in the representation as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest maps and time. A given well may be subjected to a type curve generation and decline analysis 162. The type curve generation and decline analysis 164 may identify a productivity as a function of time.

FIG. 3 illustrates example Boruta plots identifying an effect production parameters may have on estimated reservoir productivity, in accordance with one or more implementations. As illustrated, production parameters closer to the right side indicate a larger effect a given production parameter has on estimated reservoir productivity. These production parameters may have been identified by the parameter model as being critical to the prediction of production, as they may tend to more frequently lead to more robust correlations in individual regression trees when they are included randomly. Similar ensembles of production parameters may be used to predict each incremental time interval of cumulative production to build a spatial array of prediction locations that have all of the incremental production volumes associated. The production parameter on the bottom (e.g., Res. Prop. #1) may have the greatest effect, Res. Prop. #2 may have the second greatest effect, Res. Prop #3 may have the third greatest effect, and so on. The effect of the multiple production parameters may change as a function of time. For example, the Boruta plot on the left indicates that Res. Prop #4 has a greater effect at 12 months than at 6 months. The Boruta plot on the left indicates that Comp. Prop #1 has the fifth greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity at 12 months and has the fourth greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity at 6 months.

FIG. 4 illustrates example Boruta plots identifying an effect production parameters may have on estimated reservoir productivity by month, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 5 illustrates example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations. These production parameter values may indicate the marginal effect of a given production parameter on estimated reservoir productivity. The interpretations can be used as a manual check by a subject matter expert to ensure that a given production parameter has a realistic effect on well performance prediction. Spurious or illogical production parameter graphs may indicate under- or miss-sampling. Meaningful production parameters may be used to make regression-based predictions of estimated reservoir productivity at incremental time intervals as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest. The estimated reservoir productivity may be transformed into incremental production rates and subjected to traditional decline curve analysis. As illustrated, property #1 and property #3 have a threshold value above which refined production parameter values may be limited. Property #4, Property #5, and Property #6 may indicate an increasing level of productivity as the corresponding production parameter values increase. Property #2 may indicate a decreasing level of productivity as the production parameter values increase.

FIGS. 6A, 6B, 6C, 6D, 6E, 6F, 6G, 6H, 6I, 6J, 6K, and 6L show example map results of estimated reservoir productivity over a 12 month interval. FIGS. 7A, 7B, and 7C, 7D, and 7E illustrate example type curve generation and decline analyses used to estimate reservoir productivity compared to actual productivity. Individual type curve generation and decline analyses may correspond to differently defined well designs.

FIG. 8 is an example output of the disclosed technology, in accordance with one or more implementations. As illustrated, the size of the spatial array may include about 217,000 positions with an estimated reservoir productivity at each position. It should be appreciated that there are no inherent limitations to the spacing of the array, nor the temporal resolution of the cumulative production predictions tied to each array location. The output may include coordinates, production parameter values, a defined well design, cumulative estimated reservoir productivity in multiple time intervals, and/or other items.

FIG. 9 illustrates a method 900 for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, in accordance with one or more implementations. The operations of method 900 presented below are intended to be illustrative. In some implementations, method 900 may be accomplished with one or more additional operations not described, and/or without one or more of the operations discussed. Additionally, the order in which the operations of method 900 are illustrated in FIG. 8 and described below is not intended to be limiting.

In some implementations, method 900 may be implemented in one or more processing devices (e.g., a digital processor, an analog processor, a digital circuit designed to process information, an analog circuit designed to process information, a state machine, and/or other mechanisms for electronically processing information). The one or more processing devices may include one or more devices executing some or all of the operations of method 900 in response to instructions stored electronically on an electronic storage medium. The one or more processing devices may include one or more devices configured through hardware, firmware, and/or software to be specifically designed for execution of one or more of the operations of method 900.

An operation 902 may include obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to a subsurface volume of interest. The subsurface data and the well data may include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity. Operation 902 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to subsurface data and well data component 108, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 904 may include obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, a parameter model. The parameter model may be trained using training data on an initial parameter model. The training data may include well data and the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest. The parameter model may include a random forest algorithm. Operation 904 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to parameter model component 110, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 906 may include using, with the one or more physical computer processors, the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps. A given production parameter map may represent the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest. Operation 906 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to subsurface data and well data component 108, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 908 may include applying, with the one or more physical computer processors, the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values. Operation 908 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to parameter model component 110, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 910 may include generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of estimated reservoir productivity. Operation 910 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to production parameter graph component 112, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 912 may include displaying, via the graphical user interface, the multiple refined production parameter graphs. Operation 912 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to production parameter graph component 112, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 914 may include generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, one or more user input options to define a well design and limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameters. Operation 914 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to user input component 114, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 916 may include receiving, via the graphical user interface, a defined well design the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values. Operation 916 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to user input component 114, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 918 may include generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values, based on the one or more user input options selected. Operation 918 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to representation component 116, in accordance with one or more implementations.

An operation 920 may include displaying, via the graphical user interface, the representation. Operation 920 may be performed by one or more hardware processors configured by machine-readable instructions including a component that is the same as or similar to representation component 116, in accordance with one or more implementations.

FIG. 10 illustrates a workflow for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, in accordance with one or more implementations. In part A, production parameter values may be pre-filtered for statistical significance and collinearity using, for example, a Pearson correlation matrix. In part B, a Boruta plot may be generated from the random forest model. The critical production parameters for estimating well productivity may be identified and ranked in order of an effect on estimated reservoir productivity. At part C, there is a production parameter graph interpretation. Grids of the production parameters identified in the Boruta plots may be used to estimate productivity for a mapped array of reservoirs. In part D, the multiple refined production parameter graphs may be used to generate limited production parameter values that may be combined into a representation. The representation may represent an estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest.

FIGS. 11A, 11B, 11C, and 11D illustrate example production parameter graphs, in accordance with one or more implementations. As illustrated, the effect production parameters may have over time changes. For example, stress changes from having the greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity to having the second greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity to having the third greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity. As one example, brittleness goes from having the ninth greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity to having the second greatest effect on estimated reservoir productivity over time.

Although the present technology has been described in detail for the purpose of illustration based on what is currently considered to be the most practical and preferred implementations, it is to be understood that such detail is solely for that purpose and that the technology is not limited to the disclosed implementations, but, on the contrary, is intended to cover modifications and equivalent arrangements that are within the spirit and scope of the appended Claims. For example, it is to be understood that the present technology contemplates that, to the extent possible, one or more features of any implementation can be combined with one or more features of any other implementation.

While particular implementations are described above, it will be understood it is not intended to limit the presently disclosed technology to these particular implementations. On the contrary, the presently disclosed technology includes alternatives, modifications and equivalents that are within the spirit and scope of the appended claims. Numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the subject matter presented herein. But it will be apparent to one of ordinary skill in the art that the subject matter may be practiced without these specific details. In other instances, well-known methods, procedures, components, and circuits have not been described in detail so as not to unnecessarily obscure aspects of the implementations.

The terminology used in the description of the presently disclosed technology herein is for the purpose of describing particular implementations only and is not intended to be limiting of the presently disclosed technology. As used in the description of the presently disclosed technology and the appended claims, the singular forms “a,” “an,” and “the” are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It will be understood that the term “and/or” as used herein refers to and encompasses any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items. It will be further understood that the terms “includes,” “including,” “comprises,” and/or “comprising,” when used in this specification, specify the presence of stated features, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.

As used herein, the term “if” may be construed to mean “when” or “upon” or “in response to determining” or “in accordance with a determination” or “in response to detecting,” that a stated condition precedent is true, depending on the context. Similarly, the phrase “if it is determined [that a stated condition precedent is true]” or “if [a stated condition precedent is true]” or “when [a stated condition precedent is true]” may be construed to mean “upon determining” or “in response to determining” or “in accordance with a determination” or “upon detecting” or “in response to detecting” that the stated condition precedent is true, depending on the context.

Although some of the various drawings illustrate a number of logical stages in a particular order, stages that are not order dependent may be reordered and other stages may be combined or broken out. While some reordering or other groupings are specifically mentioned, others will be obvious to those of ordinary skill in the art and so do not present an exhaustive list of alternatives. Moreover, it should be recognized that the stages could be implemented in hardware, firmware, software or any combination thereof.

The foregoing description, for purpose of explanation, has been described with reference to specific implementations. However, the illustrative discussions above are not intended to be exhaustive or to limit the presently disclosed technology to the precise forms disclosed. Many modifications and variations are possible in view of the above teachings. The implementations were chosen and described in order to best explain the principles of the presently disclosed technology and its practical applications, to thereby enable others skilled in the art to best utilize the presently disclosed technology and various implementations with various modifications as are suited to the particular use contemplated. 

What is claimed is:
 1. A computer-implemented method for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, the method being implemented in a computer system that includes one or more physical computer processors, non-transient electronic storage, and a graphical user interface, comprising: obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to the subsurface volume of interest, wherein the subsurface data and the well data include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity, the subsurface data including geological data and reservoir data, the well data including completion data and production data, further wherein for the subsurface volume of interest in an unconventional reservoir, the geological data includes an anticipated stimulated rock volume; obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, a parameter model, the parameter model having been conditioned by training an initial parameter model using training data, wherein the training data includes (i) the well data of one or more wells in the subsurface volume of interest, and (ii) the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; using, with the one or more physical computer processors, the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps, wherein a given production parameter map represents the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest; applying, with the one or more physical computer processors, the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values, wherein the parameter model facilitates identification of relative effect of individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity such that one or more of the multiple production parameters that have greatest effect on the productivity are identified; generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values, wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of the estimated reservoir productivity via a plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity, the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of marginal effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity, the visualization of the marginal effect enabling a check on whether the given production parameter has a realistic effect on the estimated reservoir productivity; displaying, via the graphical user interface, the multiple refined production parameter graphs; generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, one or more user input options to define a well design and to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameter graphs; receiving, via the graphical user interface, the defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values; based on the one or more user input options selected, generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of the estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; displaying, via the graphical user interface, the representation; and wherein the one or more user input options to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the individual ones of the multiple refined production graphs includes an option to define a user-identified trend of the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity.
 2. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, further comprising presenting, via the graphical user interface, the one or more user input options corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs.
 3. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the parameter model comprises random forest machine learning.
 4. A computer-implemented method for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, the method being implemented in a computer system that includes one or more physical computer processors, non-transient electronic storage, and a graphical user interface, comprising: obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to the subsurface volume of interest, wherein the subsurface data and the well data include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity, the subsurface data, including geological data and reservoir data, the well data including completion data and production data, further wherein for the subsurface volume of interest in an unconventional reservoir, the geological data includes an anticipated stimulated rock volume, obtaining, from the non-transient electronic storage, a parameter model, the parameter model having been conditioned by training an initial parameter model using training data, wherein the training data includes (i) the well data of one or more wells in the subsurface volume of interest, and (ii) the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; using, with the one or more physical computer processors, the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps, wherein a given production parameter map represents the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest; applying, with the one or more physical computer processors, the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values, wherein the parameter model facilitates identification of relative effect of individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity such that one or more of the multiple production parameters that have greatest effect on the productivity are identified, the relative effect of the individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity presented within Bonita plots, the individual ones of the multiple production parameters ordered within the Boruta plots in accordance with the relative effect of the individual ones of the multiple production parameters; generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values, wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of the estimated reservoir productivity via a plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity, the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of marginal effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity, the visualization of the marginal effect enabling a check on whether the given production parameter has a realistic effect on the estimated reservoir productivity; displaying, via the graphical user interface, the multiple refined production parameter graphs; and wherein one or more user input options to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the individual ones of the multiple refined production parameter graphs includes an option to define a user-identified trend of the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity.
 5. The computer-implemented method of claim 4, further comprising: generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, the one or more user input options to define a well design and to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameter graphs; receiving, via the graphical user interface, the defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values; based on the one or more user input options selected, generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of the estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; and displaying, via the graphical user interface, the representation.
 6. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, further comprising presenting, via the graphical user interface, the one or more user input options corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs.
 7. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, further comprising: limiting, with the one or more physical computer processors, the refined production parameter values using threshold values and rates of changes to generate the limited production parameter values; generating, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of an estimated production of a well in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; and displaying, via the graphical user interface, the representation.
 8. The computer-implemented method of claim 7, wherein limiting the refined production parameter values comprises applying linear analysis, non-linear analysis, machine learning, and/or rate of change analysis to the refined production parameter values.
 9. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, wherein the parameter model comprises random forest machine learning.
 10. The computer-implemented method of claim 5, wherein individual ones of the multiple production parameter maps illustrate a corresponding parameter of the subsurface data and well data as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest.
 11. A system configured for estimating reservoir productivity as a function of position in a subsurface volume of interest, the system comprising: non-transient electronic storage; a graphical user interface; and one or more physical computer processors configured by machine-readable instructions to: obtain, from the non-transient electronic storage, subsurface data and well data corresponding to the subsurface volume of interest, wherein the subsurface data and the well data include production parameter values for multiple production parameters as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest, thereby characterizing subsurface production features that affect the reservoir productivity, the subsurface data including geological data and reservoir data, the well data including completion data and production data, further wherein for the subsurface volume of interest in an unconventional reservoir, the geological data includes an anticipated stimulated rock volume; obtain, from the non-transient electronic storage, a parameter model, the parameter model having been conditioned by training an initial parameter model using training data, wherein the training data includes (i) the well data of one or more wells in the subsurface volume of interest, and (ii) the production parameter values for corresponding multiple production parameters affecting productivity of the one or more wells as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; use, with the one or more physical computer processors, the subsurface data and the well data to generate multiple production parameter maps, wherein a given production parameter map represents the production parameter values for a given production parameter as a function of time and position in the subsurface volume of interest; apply, with the one or more physical computer processors, the parameter model to the multiple production parameter maps to generate refined production parameter values, wherein the parameter model facilitates identification of relative effect of individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity such that one or more of the multiple production parameters that have greatest effect on the productivity are identified; generate, with the one or more physical computer processors, multiple refined production parameter graphs from the refined production parameter values wherein a given refined production parameter graph specifies the refined production parameter values for a corresponding production parameter as a function of the estimated reservoir productivity via a plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity, the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of marginal effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity, the visualization of the marginal effect enabling a check on whether the given production parameter has a realistic effect on the estimated reservoir productivity; display, via the graphical user interface, the multiple refined production parameter graphs; generate, with the one or more physical computer processors, one or more user input options to define a well design and to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to individual ones of the multiple refined production parameter graphs; receive, via the graphical user interface, the defined well design and the one or more user input options selected by a user to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the multiple refined production parameter graphs to generate limited production parameter values; based on the one or more user input options selected, generate, with the one or more physical computer processors, a representation of the estimated reservoir productivity as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest using the defined well design and visual effects to depict at least a portion of the limited production parameter values as a function of position in the subsurface volume of interest; display, via the graphical user interface, the representation; and wherein the one or more user input options to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the individual ones of the multiple refined production parameter graphs includes an option to define a user-identified trend of the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity.
 12. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of the marginal effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity includes the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of a computer-identified trend of values of the given production parameter and values of the estimated reservoir productivity.
 13. The computer-implemented method of claim 12 wherein the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of the computer-identified trend of the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity includes the given refined production parameter graph including: a positive slope line overlaid on top of the plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity to reflect a positive relationship between the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity such that increase in the values of the given production parameter results in increase in the values of the estimated reservoir productivity; or a negative slope line overlaid on top of the plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity to reflect a negative relationship between the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity such that increase in the values of the given production parameter results in decrease in the values of the estimated reservoir productivity; or a vertical line overlaid on top of the plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity to reflect a threshold value of the given production parameter across which the effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity changes.
 14. The computer-implemented method of claim 4, wherein the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of the marginal effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity includes the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of a computer-identified trend of values of the given production parameter and values of the estimated reservoir productivity.
 15. The computer-implemented method of claim 14, wherein the given refined production parameter graph providing visualization of the computer-identified trend of the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity includes the given refined production parameter graph including: a positive slope line overlaid on top of the plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity to reflect a positive relationship between the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity such that increase in the values of the given production parameter results in increase in the values of the estimated reservoir productivity; or a negative slope line overlaid on top of the plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity to reflect a negative relationship between the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity such that increase in the values of the given production parameter results in decrease in the values of the estimated reservoir productivity; or a vertical line overlaid on top of the plot of the refined production parameter values versus the estimated reservoir productivity to reflect a threshold value of the given production parameter across which the effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity changes.
 16. The system of claim 11, wherein the relative effect of the individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity is presented within Boruta plots.
 17. The system of claim 16, wherein the relative effect of the individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity changes over time, and different relative effects of the individual ones of the multiple production parameters on the productivity at different times are presented within different ones of the Boruta plots.
 18. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the user-identified trend of the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity includes a linear trend or a non-linear trend.
 19. The computer-implemented method of claim 1, wherein the one or more user input options to limit the refined production parameter values corresponding to the individual ones of the multiple refined production parameter graphs includes: a first user input option to identify a positive relationship between values of the given production parameter and values of the estimated reservoir productivity; a second user input option to identify a negative relationship between the values of the given production parameter and the values of the estimated reservoir productivity; and a third user input option to identify a threshold value of the given production parameter across which the effect of the given production parameter on the estimated reservoir productivity changes. 